Evans Realty Blog
Evans Realty was established in 1985 and servicing the Treasure Valley for the past 37 years.
The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading
 
 

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading | MyKCM

Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of the year. Each Thursday, Freddie Mac releases its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. According to the latest survey, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen from 3.22% at the start of the year to 3.55% as of last week. This is important to note because any increase in mortgage rates changes what a purchaser can afford. To give you an idea of how rising mortgage rates impact your purchasing power, see the table below:

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading | MyKCM

How Can You Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Headed?

While it’s always difficult to know exactly where mortgage rates will go, a great indicator of where they may head is by looking at the 50-year history of the 10-year treasury yield, and then following its path. Understanding the mechanics of the treasury yield isn’t as important as knowing that there’s a correlation between how it moves and how mortgage rates follow. Here’s a graph showing that relationship over the last 50 years:

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading | MyKCM

This correlation has continued into the new year. The treasury yield has started to climb, and that’s driven rates up. As of last Thursday, the treasury yield was 1.81%. That’s 1.74% below the mortgage rate reported the same day (3.55%) and is very close to the average spread we see between the two numbers (average spread is 1.7).

Where Will the Treasury Yield Head in the Future?

With this information in mind, a 10-year treasury-yield forecast would be a good indicator of where mortgage rates may be headed. The Wall Street Journal just surveyed a panel of over 75 academic, business, and financial economists asking them to forecast the treasury yield over the next few years. The consensus was that experts project the treasury yield will climb to 2.84% by the end of 2024. Based on the 50-year history of following this yield, that would likely put mortgage rates at about 4.5% in three years.

While the correlation between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year treasury yield is clear in the data shown above for the past 50 years, it shouldn’t be used as an exact indicator. They’re both hard to forecast, especially in this unprecedented economic time driven by a global pandemic. Yet understanding the relationship can help you get an idea of where rates may be going. It appears, based on the information we have now, that mortgage rates will continue to rise over the next few years. If that’s the case, your best bet may be to purchase a home sooner rather than later, if you’re able.

Bottom Line

Forecasting mortgage rates is very difficult. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, once said:

“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”

However, if you’re either a first-time homebuyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your changing needs, understanding what’s happening with the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates can help you make an informed decision on the timing of your purchase.



The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
Owning Is More Affordable than Renting in the Majority of the Country
Owning Is More Affordable than Renting in the Majority of the Country | Simplifying The Market

Owning Is More Affordable than Renting in the Majority of the Country

 

If you were thinking about buying a home this year, but already pressed pause on your plans due to rising home prices and increasing mortgage rates, there’s something you should consider. According to the latest report from ATTOM Data, owning a home is more affordable than renting in the majority of the country. The 2022 Rental Affordability Report says:

“. . . Owning a median-priced home is more affordable than the average rent on a three-bedroom property in 666, or 58 percent, of the 1,154 U.S. counties analyzed for the report. That means major home ownership expenses consume a smaller portion of average local wages than renting.”

Other experts in the industry offer additional perspectives on renting today. In the latest Single-Family Rent Index from CoreLogic, single-family rent saw the fastest year-over-year growth in over 16 years when comparing data for November each year (see graph below):

Owning Is More Affordable than Renting in the Majority of the Country | Simplifying The Market

Molly Boesel, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, stresses the importance of what the data shows:

Single-family rent growth hit its sixth consecutive record high. . . . Annual rent growth . . . was more than three times that of a year earlier. Rent growth should continue to be robust in the near term, especially as the labor market continues to improve.”

What Does This Mean for You?

While it’s true home prices and mortgage rates are rising, so are monthly rents. As a prospective buyer, rising rates and prices shouldn’t be enough to keep you on the sideline, though. As the chart above shows, rents are skyrocketing. The big difference is, when you rent, that rising cost benefits your landlord’s investment strategy, but it doesn’t deliver any sort of return for you.

In contrast, when you buy a home, your monthly mortgage payment serves as a form of forced savings. Over time, as you pay down your loan and as home values rise, you’re building equity (and by extension, your own net worth). Not to mention, you’ll lock in your mortgage payment for the duration of your loan (typically 15 to 30 years) and give yourself a stable and reliable monthly payment.

When asking yourself if you should keep renting or if it’s time to buy, think about what Todd Teta, Chief Product Officer at ATTOM Datasays:

“. . . Home ownership still remains the more affordable option for average workers in a majority of the country because it still takes up a smaller portion of their pay.”  

If buying takes up a smaller portion of your pay and has benefits renting can’t provide, the question really becomes: is renting really worth it?

Bottom Line

If you’re weighing your options between renting and buying, it’s important to look at the full picture. While buying a home can feel like a daunting process, having a trusted advisor on your side is key. Work with an agent to explore your options so you can learn more about the benefits of homeownership today.

Why Your Home Inspection Matters [INFOGRAPHIC]

Why Your Home Inspection Matters [INFOGRAPHIC]

 

Why Your Home Inspection Matters [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Some Highlights

  • Buying a home and wondering if your inspection is necessary? While some buyers may decide to waive their inspection, it’s risky decision.
  • Your home inspection is a crucial step in the homebuying process. It assesses the condition of the home you plan to purchase, so you can avoid costly surprises down the road.
  • Let’s connect so you have expert advice and a trusted professional who will keep your interests top of mind.
Are You a Homeowner Thinking About Climate Change?
 
Are You a Homeowner Thinking About Climate Change? | Simplifying The Market

Are You a Homeowner Thinking About Climate Change?

 

Americans are more aware than ever of the effects climate change and natural disasters can have on their homes. According to a report from realtor.com:

More than 3 in 4 recent buyers, 78%, took [natural disasters] into account when choosing the locations of their homes, . . .”

The study also found that many existing homeowners (34%) have already considered selling their houses and moving to a new location because of the changing climate. If you’re like those homeowners and are weighing your options about what to do next, here’s some information to keep in mind as you begin the process of selling your existing house and searching for your new home.

Do Your Research and Work with a Real Estate Advisor To Find a Home That Meets Your Needs

As a homeowner, it’s impossible to control what types of weather events your home is exposed to. As Maiclaire Bolton Smith, Senior Leader of Research and Content Strategy for CoreLogicsays:

“You can’t necessarily remove the location from around you, but there are things you can do to mitigate damage that can happen.”

The first step is understanding how to navigate your home sale and purchase with these specific issues in mind. While that can seem like a difficult undertaking at first, with the appropriate resources and experts on your side, you can simplify the process.

The Mortgage Reports provides some tips for purchasing your next house, including, but not limited to:

  • Vetting the location before you buy
  • Researching Climate Action Plans and learning if the city or state has one
  • Working with professionals for additional assessments on the home’s ability to withstand natural disasters

Ultimately, your best resource throughout the process is a trusted real estate professional. An agent will help you navigate the sale and required disclosures for your existing home, be your expert advisor on local guidelines and information, and keep your goals and concerns top of mind. Even if your advisor doesn’t have the answers to all your questions about how your next home will stand up to natural disasters, they can help connect you with experts and resources who will.

Bottom Line

If you’re becoming more mindful about the effects of climate change and you’re ready to make a move, you’re not alone. Let’s connect so you have a trusted advisor on your side to help you navigate the sale of your current house and find the perfect spot for your next home.

The Next Generation of Homebuyers Is Here

The Next Generation of Homebuyers Is Here

The Next Generation of Homebuyers Is Here | MyKCM

Many members of Generation Z (Gen Z) are aging into adulthood and deciding whether to rent or buy a home. If you find yourself in this group, it’s important to understand you’re never too young to start thinking about homeownership. The sooner you start planning, the sooner you can move on from renting.

As you set off on your journey and plan your next move, here are a few reasons to think about homebuying this year.

The Reasons Gen Z Want To Become Homeowners

While the majority of Gen Z haven’t entered the housing market yet, a large portion plan to according to a realtor.com report. The report found that 72% of Gen Z would rather purchase a home than rent long-term. As George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research for realtor.com, says:

“With nearly three-quarters of those surveyed preferring to buy versus renting long-term, the housing industry should be prepared for millions of Gen Z buyers to bring a new wave of demand along a similar stage-of-life timeline as the millennial generation before them.”

But why do so many members of Gen Z value homeownership? According to the latest Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), young homebuyers – more than any other age group – want to become homeowners because they want to have a place of their very own.

That may be because one of the biggest benefits of homeownership is having a place that you can truly make your own by customizing it to your style and personality. Whether that’s the décor, painting, or renovations, when you own your home, you don’t have to limit yourself to what your lease and landlord will allow.

Not to mention, owning a home provides much greater long-term stability and security than renting. When you own a home, there’s also protection from steadily rising rental costs because your monthly mortgage payment is locked in for the length of your loan (typically 15 to 30 years).

Work with a Real Estate Professional To Achieve Your Goals

Whether you’re just getting started on your homebuying journey, you want to learn more about the process, or you’re fully committed to buying your first home this year, it’s especially important to connect with a trusted real estate advisor soon, as you won’t be the only first-time buyer in the market. According to a recent survey from realtor.coma majority of first-time buyers surveyed are looking to purchase a home in 2022. As the survey notes:

“First-time home buyers retain their optimism despite a challenging housing market in the past year. Hoping to achieve their goal of homeownership and provide a comfortable space for their families, young buyers are setting out to learn what they can about the market and setting their list of priorities for their home purchase.”

That means you’ll likely face strong competition from other first-time buyers. One way to get a leg-up on that competition is to work with a real estate professional to make sure you have the support you need to make an informed and confident decision.

Bottom Line

If you’re planning your next move, you’re not alone. Just know it’s never too early to consider the benefits of homeownership over renting. To learn more, let’s connect today so you have a trusted professional on your side to help you explore your options.

 

 

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
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